Goonerholics Forever

What a lovely Arsenal free weekend that was! No 90 minutes wasted watching 11 blokes passing the ball slowly backwards and sideways in their own half as though they haven’t a care in the world. I spent yesterday watching the two FA Cup games that were on. First Newcastle lost at home in extra time to Brighton. I very much enjoyed Anthony Gordon’s red card. Having been to SJP twice this season and witnessed firsthand how mouthy some of their fans are, I have developed a deep disdain for the Barcodes. One of the biggest clubs in England in their own minds. Troglodytes. 

I then watched Man United lose on pens at home to Fulham which was even more hilarious. One of my favourite things about football is how much of it is about wishing failure on others as it is about your own club winning. I’m not sure any other sport can really match that. Not to the same extent anyway. Imagine how much fun we’d have if we only played one game a month or something like that. Actually, we’d get bored of inaction very quickly, but it would at least give us more time to laugh at others. Isn’t that what life is all about? I think it might be.

But I will put an end to this digression and start my preview because we do, a little bit unfortunately, have a game ourselves tomorrow evening. PSV Eindhoven awaits us in the first leg of our Champions League RO16 tie. A stage in which seven of our last eight UCL campaigns have crashed and burned. Bodes well! 

PSV stands for Phillips Sport Vereniging. They were founded by a group of Phillips employees in 1913 and have gone on to establish themselves as one of Holland’s ‘big 3’ clubs along with Ajax and Feyenoord who were our other possible opponent for this round. 

They have a good history domestically and in Europe winning the Eredivisie 25 times and 11 Dutch Cups. some of you will be old enough to recall (apologies for the reminder of your oldness!) their UEFA Cup success in 1978 and their European Cup triumph a decade later. Some incredibly famous names have turned out for PSV over the years including Ruud Guilit, Ronald Koeman, Romario and the Brazillian Ronaldo. 

We do have some history with PSV, some of it very recent indeed. This will be our third double header with PSV in three seasons. They are very much our new Olympiakos/Bayern/Barca. However, prior to that, our first meeting was at the same stage of the competition back in 2007. Following a 1-0 defeat in Eindhoven, a 1-1 draw at the Emirates dumped us out of the competition at the first knockout round having reached the final the previous year. The Brazillian Alex, who you might remember went on to play for Chelsea for a few seasons, scored at both ends that day. 

We had to wait 15 years for our next encounter with PSV, as the two sides were drawn together in the Europa League Group stages in 2022/23. A 1-0 win at the Emirates was followed by a 2-0 reverse in Holland. However, we still managed to top the group with PSV going through as runners up. It was a similar story the following season, as we were again placed in a group with PSV, this time back in the Champions League. In our first game back in the competition in seven seasons we absolutely hammered them that night, a 4-0 win on probably the wettest night on record at the Emirates. The walk back to Finsbury Park Tube was horrendous. My jacket is still in the tumble dryer! We travelled back to Eindhoven on matchday 6 for what was a dead rubber (remember those?) and played out a 1-1 draw. Again, we won the group with PSV going through as runners up. 

This does of course mean we are yet to win in Eindhoven. Our recentish record in Holland isn’t exactly sparkling, the only other Dutch side we have played in the last 20 years is AZ Alkmaar back in 2009 with whom we drew 1-1 in Holland although we did beat them at home. Going by the UEFA website, our last win in Holland came against Ajax in 2005. We went on to reach the final that year so could that be a good omen should we win tomorrow? Of course not because why would a result 20 years ago against a different team have any bearing on this result or any future results? It can’t but it’s the kind of pointless stat you’d read on a BBC Sport preview as though it’s supposed to mean anything. We really are streets ahead of those guys when it comes to quality of publications over here at GoonerholicsForever.com. 

So what about PSV in their current iteration? Well, they are the current Dutch Champions having won the title at a canter last season. However, this season they sit second, eight points behind Ajax having lost 3-2 to Go Ahead Eagles on Saturday evening. They do have some decent players including former Spud Ivan Perisic who was instrumental in their play off victory over Juventus, as was midfielder Ismael Saibari. Also amongst their ranks are highly rated USA international Malik Tillman and Man United loanee, Tyrell Malacia. In January they signed a certain Lucas Perez formerly of this parish of course. He will no doubt have the game of his life. 

PSV generally adopt an attacking front foot approach. Last season they whacked in 111 goals in 34 Eredivisie games. They are managed by Peter Bosz who has had spells at Dortmund, Leverkusen and Lyon. Bosz likes to adopt a possession-based game with aggressive high pressing. Our 4-0 trouncing of them last season was very much an anomaly in their season. 

We are likely to have two very tough games against very able opponents. Given our lack of options, the team pretty much picks itself and we will likely be reliant on our sturdy defence and set pieces. To be truthful, I’d take a draw if you offered it to me now. We have no fresh injury concerns as of now, although I’m sure Arteta will reveal in his press conference later that the squad has been ravaged by the three headed hamstring monster, and we will now have to play Win the Dog and Gunnersaurus in attack with Sterling in goal and Ødegaard’s new baby at left back. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me. 

But not even a mythical three headed creature can stop me from predicting a win. The score will be 1-0 to The Arsenal with Merino nutting in a header from a corner. Win the Dog with the assist and Gunnersaurus to be shown a straight red for decapitating the head of a PSV player which according to Michael Oliver doesn’t come under the remit of serious foul play. Thankfully he won’t be in charge tomorrow although I’m sure he’ll somehow find a way to make it all about him. 

COYG

And so to the City Ground, Nottingham, to take on Nuno Espírito Santo’s Forest on Wednesday evening.

Our hosts are the second-oldest club in the Football League. They ascended to the status of the oldest when Notts County dropped into non-league football between 2019 and 2023, and Stoke City’s claims were debunked. Forest’s origin story dates to 1865. A group of shinty players met in a pub in the city and elected to form a football team. I suspect that, as with the founders of many Victorian football teams, they also were cricketers looking to augment their off-season exercise.

Shinty is similar to (field) hockey and shares hurling’s Celtic roots. These days, the game survives mainly in the Scottish Highlands and pockets of South Wales, where it is known as bando. In the Victorian era, it was played across England. Its winter variant, played on ice, called bandy, was particularly popular in the East Midlands, with ample flat marsh meadow and fen to freeze over. The sporting goods company, Gray’s, has a Victorian bandy stick whose handle is wrapped in rope, which doubled as a hand grip and for rescuing the player if the ice gave way beneath them.

Forest’s original name was the Nottingham Forest Foot-Ball and Bandy Club. It also had a baseball nine, the game being widespread across the East Midlands and North of England in Victorian times, as we discussed in the Preston North End league cup preview earlier this season. 

With Notts County’s moniker yet to be set in stone — it was variously referred to as the Nottinghamshire, Nottingham and Notts Football Club — Forest named themselves after the Forest Cricket Ground where they played (adding to the suspicion that they were also cricketers).

This was part of the Forest Recreation Ground, open parkland to the north of the city centre, uses in past times ranging from pedestrianism to horse racing. It derived its name from its historical location at the southern edge of Sherwood Forest. An early nickname for the club, which favoured the Scottish passing game over kick and rush, was the Tricky Trees.

In February 1866, Forest advertised in the local paper for players for pick-up games between its members—a common practice when there were few other clubs to play against. For example, a couple of months earlier, Notts had pitted a team of its lighter members against the heavier ones. For the record, it was a draw.

Notts were Forest’s first inter-club opponents. The match, played at the Forest Rec in March, was overshadowed by the much-anticipated visit of the Sheffield club to play Notts in what was then still a rarity: a match between the leading clubs of different cities. Lost in all the excitement, Notts’ game with Forest seemingly went unreported in the local prints. 

However, the late April return match at Notts’ Meadows cricket ground warranted a small paragraph in the Nottingham Journal. The game ended in a 1-1 draw, although, with the cricket season started, Notts were missing some of its better-known cricketers, including scions of the Daft, Parr and Shaw families.

The Opposition

Nuno’s Forest side bears a striking resemblance in one notable aspect to Brian Clough’s Forest sides that won back-to-back European Cups in 1979 and 1980. The defenders defend, and the attackers attack — and no fluid triangles, boxes, or other Euclidian constructions, inversions or automatisms meld the two units. You can just hear Cloughie saying in that distinctive voice, ‘We don’t do **lingering stress on the ‘do’** positional play at this club, son’.

Cloughie once told his centre-half, Larry Lloyd, ‘Hey, big head. Just win the ball and then give it to someone who can play.’ Similarly, Nuno wants his defence to get the ball to the attacking midfielders as quickly as possible and for them to run straight at the opposition and play in the striker. Nuno sets up on paper in a 4-2-3-1, but in practice, it is more a 4-2 and a 3-1. 

This is evidenced by Forest having the joint lowest share of possession in the Premier League, 40% on average. There are no horseshoes of ennui to keep possession, no high defensive lines for recycling the ball or complex build-ups from the back. Forest also has the lowest number of attempted and completed passes in the PL. 

Yet, when one looks at the defensive stats, Forest’s numbers are those of a team near the top of the table. Only ourselves and ‘Pool have conceded fewer goals. No side has kept more clean sheets or made fewer defensive errors. Few sides have been as good at keeping opponents to low-value shots.

This last line of defence is the ever-present Belgian glove butler, the lanky Matt Sels. He leads David Raya and Everton’s Jordon Pickford in the race for the Golden Glove. Bought from Strasburg a year ago for less than £7 million, he looks like a bigger bargain with the passing of every day. 

The young Brazilian Murillo, who is having a breakout season, and the 6’5″ Serbian international Nikola Milenkovic are the bedrock of Forest’s defence, with fellow centre-backs Morato and Wilfred Boly providing more than adequate cover. They can also be deployed as the third centre-back if Nuno decides to go full Graham Potter and use a back three, as he did against Bournemouth and Fulham. However, he had reverted to a four before the end of the loss at Fulham.

The young Welsh international Neco Williams and equally young Nigerian international Ola Aina currently occupy the full-back berths, with the veteran Spaniard Álex Moreno, on loan from Aston Villa, as cover.

Elliot Anderson, signed from Newcastle at the start of the season for £34 million, screens the back four, along with either the home-grown Ryan Yates or the Argentina international Nicolás Domínguez bought from Bologna in 2023. Danilo, who is on the fringe of the Brazil squad and the Ivorian Ibrahim Sangare, both returning from long-term injuries, offer alternatives from the bench.

Their other job is to get the ball to the advanced three midfielders: Anthony Elanga, a 22-year-old Swedish international whom the Red Mancs jettisoned two summers back; Morgan Gibbs-White, who has won the Under-17 World Cup and Under-21 Euros with England; and Callum Hudson-Odoi, the England international whom Chelsea, of all people, sold for £2 million in 2023.

Their job is to set up Chris Wood, the veteran New Zealand striker enjoying an Indian summer. He is third in the PL goal-scoring charts, behind Mo Salah and Erling Haaland, with 18 goals, twice as many as our best scorer in the league, who is still Kai Havertz. Taking out Wood’s three penalties and making the usual caveats about the expected goals stat, his goals scored are almost double his xG. 

Nor is there another striker in the league close to his conversion rate: 35% of his shots are goals; next closest among strikers with at least ten goals is Alexander Isak at 25%. Haaland is at 20% and Salah at 18%. Wood is simply having the season of his life. Cut off the supply to him, and Forest finds it difficult to win games. Their next highest scorer is Gibbs-White with five, followed by Elanga and Hudson-Odoi with three apiece. 

Wood is a big part of why Forest, as GHF Predictathon players know only too well, is defying all expectations after successive relegation battles in its first two seasons back in the Premier League.

The Arsenal

Our opponents have been unexpectedly high-flying all season but have lost altitude of late, with three defeats in their past four games, although all were away games; they haven’t lost at home since November. 

After Saturday’s tumble against West Ham, we have to get up and running again as quickly as possible. At this point,’ Pool still has to win nine of their remaining 11 league game to be mathematically certain of the title. Arteta says he wants his side hounding them down to the last. Finishing second will also mean a few more million quid in prize and broadcasting money to chuck into the summer transfer pot than will be available if we slide down the table.

Two selection questions present themselves: is Benny Blanco fit enough to start, allowing Timber to return to left-back or have a rest, and does Merino continue at nine? I am guessing the answers are no to the former (although White will get an extended run-out off the bench) and yes to the latter (we all know the alternative). Thus:

Raya

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori

Ødegaard, Partey, Rice

Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard

Yes, it’s a must-win game for Arteta, but that’s true for Nuno, too. If we can cut off the supply to Wood, our defensive prowess should prevent Forest scoring. We will then just need to recover the spark to score a couple at the other end — two-nil to the Arsenal, the scoreline of champions.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.

The season has reached a critical juncture where the league leaders face a trio of challenging games in short order in which they might just drop a few points. It is vital that we now keep up the pressure on Slot and his team. West Ham’s visit on Saturday therefore represents yet another ‘must win game’ for the Arsenal to narrow the gap to 5 points after Villa took two points off Liverpool in a well-earned draw at Villa Park. It’s really quite simple: we just have to keep doing our own job and, by hook or by crook, beat every team in front of us as the fixtures wind down.

Our visitors claim to have been founded in 1895 as ‘Thames Ironworks’ only to be disbanded in 1900. Another club was refounded as West Ham United later that year subsequently joining the Football League in 1919. The Boleyn Ground was that club’s home from 1904 until 2016 when it received a gift from London Mayor in the award of tenancy of the former Olympic Stadium at a peppercorn rent with the ratepayers funding conversion costs to a ‘football stadium’. That move was expected to give the club a huge competitive boost but the ground is apparently a soulless place to watch football where the stadium’s original design features leave most fans far too far from the action. In addition the stands frequently appear to be filled with toxicity – though that may simply be the culture of the natives. There were certainly clear delusions of grandeur after that move but fan expectations have not yet been met and, frankly, seem unlikely ever to be met. Another as yet unfulfilled dream was that the club would be sold to a Chinese investor and their current pornographer owners would ride into the sunset with their saddle bags stuffed with gold. Dream on, barrow boys.

Although West Ham have never actually been anything other than London’s fourth largest club, they have indeed won five major honours over the years. They won the FA Cup in 1963, 1975 and 1980, the European Cup Winners Cup in 1965 (under Ron Greenwood, with an exciting young team which included three stalwarts-to-be of England’s World Cup winners in 1966), and most recently the Europa Conference League in 2023 (lifted by a certain Mr D. Rice) prompting, for a season, the preposterous chant of ‘Champions of Europe’! Delusions of grandeur in the boardroom as well as on the terraces were probably responsible for their failure to offer a contract extension in 2024 to David Moyes, who had twice saved them from relegation, took them to three consecutive European tournaments, for the first time in their history, including reaching the Europa League semi-final in 2021-22 then lifting that Europa Conference League trophy in 2022-23. Their beef was apparently that the quality of football they were playing had regressed which was probably not unrelated to the sale of key players, including a certain Mr D Rice. Moyes was replaced by the underwhelming Julian Lopetegui in May last year but his team lost 9 of 20 Premier League games leading to his replacement on 8 January by Graham Potter with the club sitting in 14th place.

At least West Ham can proudly claim to be one of only eight clubs never to have been relegated below the second tier of English football (the certificate is in the post). However, they have spent only 67 of 99 seasons in the top flight and their highest ever league position is third place on a single occasion: 1985-86. Although, when they visit the Grove, their fans sing, “We hate Tottnumb more than you,” their traditional rival is Millwall FC due to their common origins as neighbouring Thames ironworks teams and the Hammers’ frequent sojourns in the second tier. Those matches have a certain spiciness on the pitch, on the terracing and even in the streets. It’s not a fixture which the Met anticipate with glee.

Since Potter’s appointment, West Ham have played a series of matches more reminiscent of the old Southern League than the globe conquering Premiership. After being knocked out of the FA Cup by Villa the day after his appointment, the ‘new manager bounce’ kicked in briefly when they beat Fulham 3-2 at the Council Stadium following which they have lost 0-2 at home to Palace, drawn away to Villa, lost away to Chelsea and lost at home to Brentford. They now sit 16th but are 10 points clear of the relegation zone though two places below Everton whose fortunes have been transformed by none other than David Moyes. While points-wise they are, at present, well clear of the relegation scrap, continuation of their current form will see them slip inexorably towards it. We can therefore expect them to scrap desperately for a point on Saturday.

Potter’s preferred playing style may best be characterised as ‘fluid possession-based football’. At Brighton, he constantly changed team formation and personnel, occasionally playing 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 but most frequently using a back three and selecting players capable of changing roles within games. In possession he likes his forward(s) to drift wide to support an advancing wing back, creating space for central midfielders or the other wing back to run into attacking areas and take advantage of diagonal cut-backs from the wide men. Potter’s regular 3-4-2-1 employs two ’10’s’ supporting a lone striker, creating a four man midfield box to overload the opposition’s three man midfield. Meanwhile, Potter’s wide centre backs are encouraged to get forward regularly to support the wingback on their side – an attribute that you will recognise Benjamin White has successfully brought to his Arsenal game.

Out of possession, Potter’s wing backs and wide midfielders press their direct opponents aggressively out wide while his preferred double pivot hold their zonal positions to screen the defence and the two 10’s move wide to prevent in-field passes.  Their aim is to force the opponent into wide areas, away from their goal, also creating space for a breakout if they can regain possession. When the opposition has extended periods of possession Potter’s teams fall back into a 5-2-3 or 5-4-1 using a combination of low and mid blocks. In terms of defensive actions, Potter’s Brighton were the fourth most aggressive team for pressing, duelling, tackling and interceptions in his final season there, primarily due to the workrate of his two pivots and two ’10’s’. 

Undoubtedly, in the 6 weeks he has been in charge Potter will have begun to induct his new squad into his preferred strategies. Whether he adapts his tactics to a squad that was built for Lopetugi’s 4-2-3-1 system or finds players ready to adopt his methods remains to be seen. However, he has inherited an efficient double pivot in Alvarez and Soucek though they are less technically-gifted or creative than his erstwhile Brighton pairs. However., Wan-Bissaka, Kudus, Ferguson and Bowen are certainly the kind of players who would fit his mould.

Paqueta is a doubt following an ankle injury in training which means Brighton loanee Ferguson may make his first start. Summerville is out with a hamstring injury and Coufal is also expected to miss this match. Strikers Fullkrug and Antonio are long term absentees. The following starting XI is predicted by several sources: Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kidman, Emerson;  Alvarez, Ward-Prowse; Bowen, Kudus, Solar; Ferguson.

The latest news from the Arsenal camp seems to be all about successful surgical procedures. In the past week or so, Tomiyasu, Havertz and Nelson have gone under the knife and will not play again this season with the Japanese defender unlikely to be fit again until the end of the YEAR! More encouragingly, John Cross has reported in the Mirror that Mikel Arteta is targeting Fulham’s visit on 1 April for the return of both Martinelli and Saka – make of that what you will, given the date selected! However with Jesùs in the early phase of rehab post ACL surgery, we will face the Hammers without our four first choice attackers.

Thank the Lord (DB10 – no conversions here) that our Hale End graduates have stepped up to the plate so brilliantly and Mikel Merino has emulated Kai Havertz, at least initially, (hopefully to be continued indefinitely) in transforming himself from a toiling midfielder into a deadly finisher – truly a caterpillar to butterfly scale mutation. We need those three players to reproduce their Lesta form against West Ham and thereafter. I have to give special flowers to the Hale End lads. Without MLS’s toe poke deflection, I doubt whether we would have taken all 3 points at Lesta and Nwaneri’s match long endeavours should have been rewarded with more than that beautiful assist and two strikes on the woodwork. Frankly, without the emergence of those two lads we would not be breathing down the Scousers’ necks. Hopefully further rewards will be forthcoming. Benjamin White has been training with the first team since Dubai, was on the bench at Lesta and can also be expected to be available on Saturday. 

There are few questions about our starting XI. Will White start, giving Timber a well earned rest or will he join the game from the bench after 60 minutes? I suspect the latter. Will MLS retain the left back slot after several outstanding performances or will Calafiori claim the starting position? I suspect the former. After 70 minutes of unrewarding toil by Sterling prompting the consensus that the man was willing but that ‘his legs had gone’, we saw the value of a big, technically-gifted player driving into the middle of the opposition box. Will Merino start in the attack or, as Mikel Arteta implied had been his strategy against Lesta, will Sterling join Trossard and Nwaneri in driving at and tiring out the opposition’s defenders to create, as the game draws late, the space for our Big Brawny Basque Bomber to finish the job? Personally, I would start Merino up front from the off and bring Sterling on at 60-70 minutes to allow one of the starting forwards to put their feet up for half an hour, but Mikel knows better.

Thus, my starting XI is as follows (Mikel will likely have other ideas):

Raya

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, MLS

Ødegaard, Partey, Rice

Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard

We have won 74 out of 152 matches against West Ham (lost 41), scored at least 5 in each of our last two games against them and are unbeaten in 15 games, whilst West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in 2025. We should be optimistic that, even bereft of four top attackers, we will score goals and should win this game. If we dominate possession, as I expect, control the ball, maintain defensive solidity and regularly get the ball to Nwaneri, Dave’s favourite 2-0 scoreline seems a likely outcome. Thus the Holic Pound is going on this scoreline which is offered at 5/1 at SkyBet.

The match kicks off at 3pm and is therefore not being televised live in the UK. Overseas viewers have a number of live broadcast options.

If we are going to hunt Liverpool down, we need to win this game.

Enjoy the game, ‘Holics.

ONE. GAME. AT. A. TIME.