Goonerholics Forever

Games are arriving so thick and fast that it’s hard to keep up with the schedule from a diary point of view – Heaven knows what it must be like for the players! The dust (snow?) has barely settled on the strange events at the Amex – can it really be yet another blow in a postulated, but to my mind unlikely, PGMOL pay-back conspiracy (MA8 called them a disgrace last season and ‘got away with it’ when carpeted, now it’s payback), a malign alignment of stars or are we just the unlucky victims of an astonishing series of bizarre decisions that you will never see again? Now, with minimal recovery time, we must go toe to toe with Newcastle for a place in the League Cup Final.

One thing I can confidently predict about the forthcoming match is that Newcastle will be well up for it. Which strategy they adopt remains to be seen. Will they adopt a two-leg strategy and put in the kind of away performance we have seen before from ‘Nice Eddie’s’ teams at the Grove: dig in with an eight man defence, waste time from the first minute onwards, foul rotationally, disrupt play, kick, elbow, shove, hit and barge with the objective of getting a result in this game that makes the SJP leg decisive, or will they, with their new found confidence, go for a win at the Grove against the weakened and potentially off-colour Arsenal side that will face them to put the tie beyond our reach?

Newcastle are on a great run of form at the moment, having won six games in a row in all competitions and Isak currently can’t stop scoring – he has now netted in seven consecutive premier league matches, matching a club record held jointly by Alan Shearer and Joe Willock. This season’s League Cup is their biggest opportunity to win silverware for the first time in a very long time and ‘Nice Eddie’ who was under a bit of pressure when their results were iffy at the beginning of this season, will be desperate to deliver a trophy to the Sheik of Araby. 

It’s been a long time since a Barcode lifted a cup. Their last kosher trophy (we exclude the Intertoto Cup of 2006, Anglo-Italian Cup of 1973 and Texaco Cups of 1974 & 1975) was the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup (predecessor to the Europa League) in 1968-69. Their last domestic trophy (excluding three second tier championships) was the FA Cup in 1954-55. So the Geordies will have a huge hunger to win this tie and I expect that there will be no unenforced changes from their first choice eleven for this game.

Newcastle have never won the League Cup, in either its unsponsored or sponsored guises. However, they have reached the final twice, losing to Manchester City (predecessor to C130y) 1-2 in 1975-76 and to Manchester United 0-2 in 2022-23. The PL title this season is far more remote for Newcastle than it appears to be for us and the League Cup represents their best chance of silverware this season. They will have a huge hunger to win this semi-final.

Once reaching this stage, Newcastle’s record in League Cup semi-finals is actually better than ours, though their appearances have been much less frequent. Both times they have reached the semi-final of this competition, they have progressed to the final. They will be under pressure to maintain that record. 

Actually, we should be every bit as hungry as Newcastle in this tie. The Arsenal have played in seventeen League Cup semi-finals, since the competition’s inception in 1966-67, and have progressed only eight times and only gone on to win the silverware twice. We last appeared in the semi-final in 2021-22 when we went out to Liverpool following a goalless draw at the Grove and a 0-2 defeat at Anfield. Our last semi-final success was in 2017-18 when we beat Chelsea 2-1 after drawing 0-0 at the Bus Stop in Fulham only to be well beaten 0-3 by a confident C130y in the final – to deliver Pep Guardiola his first trophy in England. 

You will doubtless recall that Arsene Wenger tended to use this competition as an opportunity for youth development and we often didn’t progress far, regularly falling at the first moderately difficult hurdle. However, Arsene did lead us to three finals – most recently that damp squib against C115y and before that a deeply disappointing 1-2 defeat to Birmingham City in 2010-11 (I still cannot believe that we didn’t win that game) and another disappointing defeat in 2006-7 to Mourinho’s Chelsea where we succumbed 1-2 in Cardiff to two Drogba goals. I attended all three of those finals and swear that I will never attend another League Cup Final. Holic would periodically lament the experience of attending our League Cup Finals against Dirty Leeds in 1968 and Swindon Town in 1969, so I guess that we may have a long tradition of misfortune in this competition.

There appear to be so-called Arsenal supporters out there currently suggesting that, after five years in the hot seat and with ‘only an FA Cup’ to show for his expenditure, Arteta should be replaced if he doesn’t win silverware this season. I would like to see us win this trophy as well as every other competition we enter, but the very same morons would undoubtedly dismiss it as ‘only a League Cup’, and continue to demand Arteta’s head. Arsenal are, of course, committed to diversity and equality, hence there appears to be room in the Goonersphere for morons along with normal people. Fortunately, however, Arteta’s employers have a few more neurones to spark together and recognise the transformation he has achieved within the club and the prospects for the team that he has been building. I am confident that whatever the outcome for the trophy cabinet this season, Mikel Arteta’s job is secure.

As already noted, Newcastle come into this tie in great form which coincides with the return from exile of Tonali and ‘Nice Eddie’s’ discovery of his best team. Dubravka has deputised well for the injured Pope, their backline has been stiffened by the replacement of an ageing Trippier by the energetic Livramento at right back and the emergence of Hall at left back while they have had a rich selection of giant and aggressive centre backs – though injuries and suspension have struck this department and it remains to be seen whether the knock that forced Botman off at the Toilet Bowl, on his return from a year out after an ACL, keeps him out tomorrow. If so, he will probably be replaced by Lloyd Kelly unless one of their more experienced centre backs recovers in the interim to partner Burn as Schär is still suspended. I suspect that the biggest factor in Newcastle’s recent good form is Howe’s decision to deploy a midfield of Guimaraes, Tonali and Joelinton that looks strong and competitive off the ball and mobile and silky in possession. (STOP PRESS – as CER points out in the Drinks and I had overlooked, the sneaky, rabbit punch bandit, Guimaraes is suspended for this match and I expect he will be replaced by Longstaff – who brings as much muscle but hopefully less vision to their midfield.) Murphy has featured lately in the right sided attacking spot with several recent goals and assists while Isak and Gordon, likely to be fit after his facial reconstruction at the Toilet Bowl, are nailed on to start up front.

The Arsenal are undefeated in nine games since Isak’s winner at SJP in early November but we don’t come into this game in great shape. The team looked lethargic in the second half against Brighton. Havertz has missed two games due to a viral infection and was clearly suffering from an upper respiratory tract infection (a.k.a. ‘a cold’) when interviewed after the Ipswich game. It seems likely that Ødegaard who was unable to train before the Brighton game, was playing through flu-like symptoms. Apparently Merino, MLS and possibly some others were also suffering from the viral symptoms. The second half lethargy at Brighton may reflect widespread viral infection rather than merely a hangover from a tough game against Brentford only a couple of days earlier with several days less rest than Brighton. Just when it looked as if we had found a promising replacement for the injured Saka, Nwaneri’s substitution at half-time due to a ‘muscular issue’ was a sickener with Arteta observing that this injury was ‘really bad news’. Hopefully, Arteta was talking of really bad news for the team rather than for the lad. Time will tell. Fingers crossed that was another example of Arteta hyperbolic misdirection.

Although we are still in four competitions, the points gap to the top of the Premier League and our accumulating, and no doubt not yet ended, misfortunes at the hands of PGMOL apparatchiks, means we should probably also regard this tie as our best chance of silverware this season. Thus, if it was an option, we should also be selecting our first choice eleven. However, team selection will probably be determined more by who is fit enough to play than about choosing ‘horses for courses’. Walking wounded may also be eligible.

Timber will hopefully return rested, flu-free and raring to go, allowing Partey, who acquitted himself reasonably well at Brighton until tiring late on, to return to his most effective role in central midfield with Rice alongside him as I can’t see Partey coping against that Newcastle midfield as a single pivot. Hopefully, Ødegaard will have thrown off the lurgy though his 30 minutes running around in a blizzard at Brighton will almost certainly have set his recovery back, otherwise we may have the relatively solid but unspectacular midfield trio of Partey, Rice & Merino. Perhaps Havertz has also recovered sufficiently to make the squad if not the team and hopefully no others have succumbed to the virus. However, I suspect that our choice of a starting forward line is entirely restricted to the trio who finished against Brighton unless Sterling has made a recovery from his knee injury. 

Hence, assuming Ødegaard’s youth facilitates a swift recovery, I would select the following starting eleven:

Raya

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori;

Ødegaard, Partey, Rice;

Martinelli, Jesùs, Trossard.

If neither Havertz nor Sterling recover, heaven knows who we can put on the bench to call on if a forward substitute is required. I can’t name an academy prospect whom I can see potentially being thrown in against Newcastle’s defensive monsters. Perhaps, given the circumstances, Arteta may adopt a Gorgeous George tactic and choose to add extra cover in midfield from the off, MLS or Zinchenko for Trossard, perchance? I can’t see it myself but if I was in the hotseat, I would certainly consider that. It worked several times for George.

The Holic pound? Well at the time of writing, the bookies have us favourites at 7/10 with the draw at 16/5 and the ‘Codes at 4/1. You can get 2-1 to the good guys at 15/2 and 1-0 at 8/1. Their shortest odds are 7/1 for a 1-1 draw. Be lucky, punters.

I expect a tight, physically challenging, angst-ridden contest but if we can’t throw off the lethargy from that second half at Brighton we are going to be in trouble. There really should be no ‘saving our legs’ for the FA Cup tie against Manure on Sunday. Nor, on the other hand, should we take foolish risks to win this home leg. As a minimum, we must ensure that the tie is not out of reach after this leg. We should have some reinforcements back by the second leg, perhaps even a new signing, and we are quite capable of winning the tie in the second leg, PGMOL permitting.

Enjoy the match, Holics.

And so to the Falmer Stadium, better known as the Amex, for a late Saturday afternoon encounter with Brighton & Hove Albion.

The Amex site, although not the stadium, sits astride the Lewis-Brighton border, a geographical inconvenience that delayed by at least five years the ending of the Seagull’s 14 errant years after their old Goldstone Ground was sold from under them to developers in the 1990s. 

It gave the good burghers of Lewis, once the home of Thomas Paine, ‘Merkan ‘holics may be interested to know, the excuse to indulge in old-fashioned Nimbyism by opposing the construction of a football stadium under the guise of protecting designated open countryside. The boundary-straddling field, used as a temporary stadium carpark until 2021, is now set to be turned into student housing for the Falmer campuses of the Universities of Brighton and Sussex. So much for green intentions!

Meanwhile, the football club continues to develop its compact stadium. A new ‘fan zone’, The Terrace, will open towards the end of this season. Fan zones are the US concept of plazas at sports venues where folk can congregate pre- and post-match so the club can sell them more overpriced food and drink. The stadium also gets a new event space to monetise on non-match days. Kerching all round!

A two-story club shop will be next in the ‘Albionisation’ of the Amex. The existing one will relocate to the space now occupied by Dick’s Bar and the club’s museum. Both those close after our game on Saturday to let the refurbishment start. In the unlikely event that either is on your bucket list, last chance, and all that.

Some travelling ‘holics may also like to know that from 2027, away fans will be relocated from behind the goal to the southwest corner of the South Stand, which will include an area of safe standing.

Hürzeler 

In addition to property development, Brighton has a sideline playing football. Chris Hughton led the Seagulls back into the top flight in the 2017-18 season, 34 years after their relegation from the old Division One. However, it is his three successors—Graham Potter, Roberto De Zerbi and Fabian Hürzeler—who have solidified the club’s position there.

Each appointment was bold and imaginative, but none more so than Fabian Hürzeler, who became the Premier League’s youngest-ever manager at 31 and the first to be born after the competition began in 1992. The Texas-born Swiss-German had been a talented enough player to be on Bayern Munich’s books as a teenager and progress through Germany’s youth teams to the Under-19s. However, he played his senior football for Bundesliga B teams and gave it up in his early twenties to become a coach. 

He arrived at Brighton in the summer from Hamburg’s anti-establishment ‘kult’ club, FC St Pauli, which he had just steered to promotion to the Bundesliga.

As when he took over at St. Pauli, Hürzeler has mostly maintained his predecessor’s formation at Brighton but adapted it to his philosophy of high-intensity attacking football that uniquely straddles the Juego de Posición system favoured by most top European teams and the emerging controlled chaos of Relationalism coming out of Brazilian football (see: Diniz, Rydstrom et al). Both approaches focus on building from the back to break the opposition press and then creating overloads in attack; however, in the latter, the overloads are generated by players, particularly midfielders, swarming the ball, with the team not beholden to a rigid structure. 

While Hürzeler used an inherited 3-4-3 at St Pauli, he has built on De Zerbi’s 4-2-3-1 at Brighton. In the build-up, his and De Zerbi’s Brighton look similar: the goalkeeper makes a back three with the two centre-backs. The full-backs go wide and two midfielders drop to create a line of four in front of them. It is once the opposition’s press has been broken that the differences emerge. Hürzeler has his midfielders moving the ball and themselves rapidly upfield to create a fluid attacking six or seven. 

The midfielders’ freedom to hunt in packs to create fast overloads that stretch opposition defences out of shape, and especially pull them wide, frequently means vacating central midfield. This requires the defensive line to play high. This high-risk attacking gambit leaves Brighton vulnerable to counterattacks. This season, it has conceded a league-high four breakaway goals.

Opposing managers may be starting to work out Hürzeler’s novel approach. After a five-game unbeaten run to start the season that had Brighton second in the table at one point, his side has slipped to tenth. Monday’s draw with Aston Villa extended Brighton’s winless streak since beating Bournemouth on November 23rd to seven, even if so far this season, only the Mugsmashers and ourselves have lost fewer games than the Seagulls.

The opposition

A ball-playing keeper is the starting point for Hürzeler’s system. The young Dutch international Bart Verbruggen is first choice. In front of him, club captain Lewis Dunk partners another young Dutch international, Jan Paul van Hecke, in the middle. Compatriot Joël Veltman has been playing right back, although Tariq Lampety is now back from injury and will be seeking to cement his return, having scored the equaliser against Villa. Ecuadorian Pervis Estupiñán has been on the left, with Ferdi Kadioglu, a left-back bought from Fenerbahce in the summer for £25 million, gone in the fetlock.  However, Estupiñán missed the midweek game against Villa because of illness and is 50/50 for Saturday. Brazilian centre-back Igor Julio or the long-serving Adam Webster would deputise.

London-born Danish international Matt O’Riley and the 20-year-old Carlos Baleba, another potential gem unearthed by Brighton’s recruitment department, will likely occupy the crucial ghost midfield roles — shape-shifting sixes-cum-eights-cum-false 10s. Look for them to play quickfire ‘third man’ passes to make the rapid attacking transitions Hürzeler wants. Injuries have hindered the highly-regarded Dutch international midfielder Mats Wieffer, who joined from Feyenoord in the summer for £25 million, from nailing down a starting place. He again is unavailable for Saturday. The young Swedish international Yasin Ayari is Plan C.

The dangerous and rapid Japanese winger Kaoru Mitoma and one of Solly March, newly returned from injury, Brajan Gruda, a 20-year-old Albanian-German brought from Mainz in the summer for £26 million or Yankuba Mintech, a £29 million summer buy from Newcastle, will offer the width that is crucial to Hürzeler’s high-intensity attack. Another left-wing option is Simon Adingra, a 22-year-old Ivory Coast international and another who exemplifies Brighton’s astute talent spotting.

Julio Encisio, the prodigiously talented 20-year-old Paraguayan who has struggled for playing time under Hürzeler, has nonetheless recently been deployed as the third false 10. In October and November, Hürzeler opted for an even more attacking 4-4-2, with Georginio Rutter, a £37 million summer buy from Leeds, the versatile Brazilian João Pedro and Evan Ferguson, another promising 20-year-old struggling for form and minutes, playing alongside leading goalscorer Danny Welbeck, formerly of this parish. All three have also played as the single striker in a 4-2-3-1. Crocked ankles mean neither Welbeck nor Ferguson will make even the bench on Saturday.

The Arsenal

Timber will miss the rematch, having picked up a soft fifth yellow against Brentford. This will likely require moving Partey to right back, which, in turn, could mean Martinelli replacing Nwaneri on the right wing to help deal with Mitoma, even though Nwaneri did enough against Brentford to retain his place. 

Calafiori might well be rotated. Rice should return after being rested for most of the Brentford game. Arteta expects those stricken with the lurgi to be available, including the worst affected, Havertz, but the German may be eased back in from the bench. Thus:

Raya
Partey, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly
Ødegaard, Rice, Merino
Martinelli, Jesus, Trossard

It is unnecessary to repeat that every game now must yield three points. Additionally, there is the ridiculous Rice red card home draw to avenge. Beating Brighton would close the gap at the top of the table to three points by the time Liverpool plays on Sunday, putting a smidgen of pressure on them. Unfortunately, they have a home game against a team in the bottom third of the league that hasn’t scored a goal at Anfield since 2019.

Hürzeler, who displays the cockiness of youth (Matron!), says his team will win if it plays with its signature high intensity and courage in possession and deals with our set pieces. He is neither the first to say that nor to see such ambition blunted by Arteta’s counter tactics of dominant control. The gentlemen of the turf think a 2-1 away win is the most likely outcome, but any win for the Arsenal will do.

Enjoy the game, ‘holics far and wide.

New Year’s Day sees us playing ‘Tail End Charlies’ for the second week in succession when we make the short trip to Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium for an evening kick-off after everyone else has played their week 19 fixture.

A visit to Brentwood evokes the memory of their first home Premier League game on Friday the 13th 2021. That was their first top flight game since their 0-1 defeat to Arsenal at Griffen Park on 26th May 1947, their first ever capacity crowd in their new stadium and the much-hyped (at least by the broadcasters), opening match of the 2021-22 season. The home crowd was understandably febrile and the ground was rocking. Unfortunately, Arteta had to field a patched up side due to the absence of both Lafayette and Aubameyang and gave PL debuts to Benjamin White and Sambi Lokonga. Leno was glove butler, Mari played right back and Chambers joined White at centre back with Tierney at left back. The midfield comprised ESR, Xhaka and Sambi Lokonga and the attack, Pépé, Balogun and Martinelli. The game took a familiar course to any Gooner who had been watching the team since the mid-noughties. We dominated possession and territory early in the first half but failed to score and were very susceptible to Brentford breakaways. After several near things we went 1-0 down midway through the first half. Having failed to create any clear chances in the first half we came close several times early in the second half with ESR to the fore but a combination of near misses and David Raya kept us out. Then, out of nowhere, Brentford scored a second from a poorly managed long throw. We kept up the pressure, came close again but Raya frustrated us. Brentford won 2-0 and the crowd were delirious. So were Sky’s di-gnomic duo Neville and Carragher whose masks slipped as they jubilantly celebrated Arsenal’s defeat – none of the usual hypocritical faint praise or feigned concern – they simply joined the Brentford fans’ celebrations.

That 2021 game provides a lesson. As Mike McDonald observed after the Ipswich game, the reason that game was terrible to watch was the control that we exerted both in and out of possession, a phenomenon he terms ‘football strangulation’. Our work off the ball ensured that Ipswich had barely any chances (and no shots on goal) because when we conceded possession – a rare event in the first half – we almost invariably snuffed their offensive transitions out within seconds. As many observed, that game yielded an essential three points but watching it was difficult. That negative emotional response was largely due to our missed chances leaving us with a solitary 1-0 lead that resulted in a tense last ten minutes when Ipswich finally tried to ‘have a go’. This revived those deep scars we all bear from the many past games that we dominated but in which we got suckered by a breakaway goal.  Check out Gunnerstown for Mike’s detailed analysis of how we managed that ‘no risk’ game.

However, we have an otherwise excellent record against Brentford since their return to the top tier. In the six games since that defeat, we have won five and drawn one. We have won all three away games, once 3-0 and twice 1-0, including a League Cup tie in 2023. Our record at the Grove is two wins, both 2-1 and a 1-1 draw.

We can expect Brentford to deploy similar low block tactics to those of Everton and Ipswich when Arsenal are in possession. It’s their usual modus operandi against top teams and they are pretty good at it. However we should also expect a more front-footed approach than we saw from Ipswich. When we lose possession they will deploy rapid attacks involving Mbuemo, Wissa and Schade supported by Damsgaard, Norgaard and the wing backs. Against teams like Arsenal, Thomas Frank often plays 3 at the back with 2 mobile wing backs and 4 in central midfield – 2 holding, 2 attacking – to congest the centre of the pitch and gain numerical advantage. This facilitates a high press in defensive transition, whilst In possession they use their numerical advantage to build through the middle. Their formation is very fluid and they adapt to both the opposition and the phase of play, swinging between 3-2-5 in possession, with a high back-line and focused overloads in the channels between opposition centre backs and fullbacks, to 5-3-2 in a low block with a compact centre forcing the opposition wide. They will often have ten men behind the ball, squeezing the pitch by pushing up when the opponent plays a sideways pass or a back pass. The keeper frequently goes long to their forward(s) and they employ similar tactics to Arsenal at corners with tall players grouped beyond the far post moving into the 6-yard box towards the near post as the kick is taken. We should expect to face a high press when we play out from the back and man to man marking in midfield as they aim to regain possession high up the pitch.

Brentford sit in 12th place, level on 24 points with the shower up the road but with an inferior goal difference of 0. They have scored and conceded 32 goals in 18 games. Although still winless on the road, at the Gtech they have garnered 22 points – a joint highest home points harvest along with Liverpool – scoring a PL high of 26 goals in the process. Yet they have failed to keep a clean sheet at home all season. They drew their last game away against Brighton 0-0, and have lost three and won one of the preceding four games. They surprisingly lost their last home game 0-2 to Forest, the only side to win away at the Gtech this season to date, but they won the previous home fixture handsomely against Newcastle, 4-2. In their last game against Brighton, three Brentford players had to go off injured: Mee is reported to be unfit for this match, Flecken is expected to recover from his knock and Norgaard is fine. 

Valdimarsson will replace Flekken, if the latter fails a late fitness test, and he apparently performed well against Brighton; van den Berg and Jensen are fit again and return to the squad and the former is likely to replace Mee at centre back. Collins, Roerslev and Lewis-Potter are also likely to figure defensively whilst Janelt, Norgaard, Damsgaard, Schade and Mbuemo will congest the midfield and be ready to support Wissa in attack. 

What of the Arsenal? Whilst Sterling is apparently recovering from his knee injury faster than initially anticipated, this game comes too soon for him, as it does for long-term absentees White and Tomiyasu. In the absence of news of additional injuries from the last game it seems that our squad will be the same as was available for Ipswich. However, I expect a different starting XI. In that game, despite starting every available first team forward, we came up with a single goal and away from home against a more ambitious opponent, we need to be prepared for a midfield scrap so I expect to see Thomas Partey return to his usual position (though there is a risk that rotation for Timber might see him deployed as an inverted right back but to the detriment of the right sided threat). I expect Trossard to be the man dropped to allow Partey to return to his holding role and Rice to move forward to the ‘left eight’. There’s a chance that Calafiori will start in place of MLS though I would let the youngster retain his place despite our bench being stacked with left backs. David Raya will start his first game against Brentford since he was at Blackburn. I expect Arteta to keep faith with Jesùs in the hope that he will continue his rich vein of form but predominantly in a wide position with Havertz in the centre and Martinelli as the other wide man but with multiple interchange of position between the front three.

Thus, I expect the following starting XI:

Raya;

Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, MLS;

Ødegaard, Partey, Rice;

Jesùs, Havertz, Martinelli.

This is yet another ‘must win game’ as we must keep pace with the league-leaders, Liverpool, who currently sit 9 points ahead with the same number of games played. We cannot allow that points gap to widen, especially as their next fixture is a gimme against a pretty hopeless Manchester United. History and form suggest a tight, low-scoring contest and I expect a good ol’ 1-0 to the Arsenal, enervating though that will be.

The Holic Pound, I hear you ask. Arsenal are the bookies’ favourites to win, at 9/20 with the draw at 41/10. You can have 1-0 to the Arsenal at 9/1 or 2-1 to the Arsenal at a slightly shorter 17/2. The bookies’ shortest odds are 15/2 on 2-0 to the Arsenal. Take your pick. 

We have to win and I expect a rollercoaster. Enjoy the game, Holics.

I’ll take this opportunity to wish Gooners everywhere a happy, healthy and peaceful 2025 with some silverware to admire come May. 

I’d also like to thank all our readers and especially to thank the Holics who contribute to this site in multiple ways and without whose commitment this fine memorial to Dave Faber and the global community he built would not exist as an oasis of common sense in this crazy world.

Sláinte mhath!