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‘Tain’t Just the Taint

Oct 20th, 2023 by

Seeing as this first game after the international break could set a trend for the matches that follow, Arsenal’s visit to Stamford Bridge in Saturday’s late game is an excellent time for the Gunners to keep the bit between their teeth, and turn things up a notch or two.  The game offers them the prize of resuming the momentum they built up prior to the two week interruption in successive clean sheet league wins against Brentford, Bournemouth and Manchester City.

The opposition

Arsenal have many scores to settle against this opponent, as no one will have forgotten.  Going back as far as December 2020, the Gunners have won five of the last six Premier League derbies between the clubs, but before that date had managed only six wins and ten draws from the 32 league matches between the clubs after Roman Abramovich, the club’s Russian oligarch owner, first hired Jose Mourinho as manager.  Arsenal finished higher than Chelsea in the league table only three times in the 18 seasons since the Invincible Gunners won the league in 2004, one year after Abramovich infused his money into the previously underachieving West London club. 

In May 2022, after Abramovich was disqualified as club director for his ties to the regime that shocked the world by invading Ukraine, Chelsea was sold to Todd Boehly’s consortium backed by Clearlake Capital.  It remains to be seen whether Chelsea’s new money is as tainted as that of Abramovich, but there seems to be no less of it.  In the 2022 summer window Chelsea spent more than any club in Premier League history, dishing out over £250 million on players like Sterling, Cucurella, and Aubameyang.  Early last season Boehly sacked coach Thomas Tuchel who objected to certain of those transfers, and Boehly appointed Graham Potter in his place.  

By spending over £300 million in January, including £107 million for British record signing Enzo Fernandez and another £89 million for Mikhailo Mudryk, who was heavily rumored to be Arsenal-bound at the time, Chelsea established a new level of transfer madness.  Potter, who was unable to sort this plethora of riches in the requisite jiffy, was sacked with Chelsea 11th in the table, and replaced by interim manager Frank Lampard as the club limped to a record-low 38 goals scored and their first bottom half finish since 1996.  Ex-Sp*rs and PSG manager Mauricio Pochettino was then hired in the summer to see what he could do amidst all that chaos.

Remarkably for a club that spent such sums on transfers in the last two years, after six games Chelsea were 15th in the table with only five points.  But based on three good results prior to the break, things could be on the upswing at Stamford Bridge.  Chelsea defeated Fulham away as Mudryk scored his first goal for the club; the next week Chelsea won at Burnley at a canter; and those two league wins followed a home League Cup victory over Brighton.  Chelsea’s current state of development is difficult to assess, but with so many talented players, Pochettino should be capable of getting results if given sufficient autonomy.  Eight games into the season it still seems that their many new players, and the team as a whole, are something of an unknown quantity.  The Blues now sit 11th in the table, level on points with West London neighbors Fulham.

Arsenal XI

Ex-Blues Jorginho and Havertz, the latter a Chelsea player this very calendar year, will hope for a chance to impress in their old haunts.  The Gunners play Champions League football in midweek when they travel to face Sevilla, so Mikel Arteta may have more substitution issues to consider than his counterpart in this match, as Chelsea will have a whole week to recover before they host Brentford.

William Saliba hurt his toe near the end of our victory over Man City and was ruled out of the internationals.  Arsenal’s other main injury worry is Bukayo Saka, who missed the City game due to the hamstring injury he picked up at Lens, but I am pencilling both players into the team and leaving it to Arteta to name replacements if those two are unavailable.  Unfortunately, I see that Leandro Trossard has also been carrying a knock so Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson will need to be ready.

Seeing as Trev was correct to point out in his Man City match report that we have an awful lot of Gabi’s from Brazil, let’s see if you can spot all of them in my predicted starting XI:

Raya

White  Saliba  G.  Zinchenko

Rice

Ødegaard  Havertz

Saka  G. Jesús  G. Martinelli

(Oleksandr has not changed his name to Gabriel, he’s nominally just lining up next to Big Gabi on the left side of our defensive line.)

The ‘holic pound

Short and sweet, I’ll predict two snorts and a clean sheet: Ødegaard and Gabriel Jesús to score in a 2-0 to the good guys.  Chelsea may be improving, and have only let in four goals in eight league games, but Arsenal should have enough to hold them off.

Thank Dennis that interminable interlull has at last ended, and the boys in red and white, or, on this occasion, fluorescent yellow with black wavy lines and black (!), will be on the loose again.  Wherever you are watching the game, ‘holics, make it a good one. 

Posted in Match Preview | 70 Drinks »

So Far … So Pretty Good!

Oct 14th, 2023 by

As the celebrations continued after the win against Manchester City, it seemed reasonable to take stock, for the first time this season of how the 2023/24 season had started. In this second Interlull, I will look at three things. How Arsenal have started the season, how have other teams fared so far and finally, what big issues have emerged as the season has got under way? 

Firstly, and very importantly, how are we doing? After the excitement but ultimate disappointment of last season, how have we begun our attempt to go one place better than we did last term? Well, if you look at things statistically it looks pretty similar. Last season we were the early pacesetters but lost one of our first big tests to Manchester United. We dropped three points in our first eight games. This season we have dropped four and we are second by the narrowest of margins but are unbeaten in the league and the  team ahead of us are top on goals scored by dint of having scored two more. Unfortunately that team is Tottenham, also unbeaten but benefitting enormously from having played five of the bottom six teams including all three promoted clubs. More of them later. 

The big difference from last season is that we are back in the Champions League. A sublime performance in our first game against PSV (a team unbeaten in 27 consecutive games in the Eredivisie) was followed by our only defeat of the season to date at Lens. We also eased through a tricky looking Carabao Cup tie away to Brentford with a shadow side. So the season has begun pretty well, although qualification from our CL group is by no means a gimme. 

Unpacking that start one could look at the situation from two perspectives. We have yet to produce much of the high octane football that characterised our play last season in the League. Three home games have been won, against Forest, Manchester United and last week’s potentially vital win against Citeh. We’ve frustratingly dropped points at home to Fulham and Tottenham, both 2-2 draws and both games we really should have won. We’ve conceded six goals in five home games. In the three away league games we’ve yet to concede despite playing at Palace with ten men for almost half the game! Overwhelmingly superior to Everton, we triumphed only 1-0 but put Bournemouth to the sword by winning 4-0. This would suggest that we perhaps adopt a different approach home and away with a less expansive way of playing on our travels. But it would be a massive curmudgeon who would criticise an unbeaten start domestically and a one point lead over Manchester City who won their first six games. A couple of weeks ago Twitter was full of people saying the title race was already over. Our big fear pre-season was that a slow start might see us fail to regain the momentum we generated last season. Without recapturing that, we have accumulated points very efficiently and one senses there is so much more to come from this side. It still intrigues me that we have slipped into the role of the most highly rated challengers to Citeh when at this stage two seasons ago a large portion of our fan base were screaming for Arteta’s dismissal after a disastrous start! 

Any start to a new season is  fascinating  because of the impact of new signings and new playing styles. The Arsenal’s transfer activity was very decisive in terms of acquiring key new personnel. Havertz was acquired from Chelsea, Jurrien Timber from Ajax and to most people’s surprise David Raya was recruited, initially on loan as a rival to one of the big successes of the new era, Aaron Ramsdale. By far the most important signing and an Arsenal record in terms of the transfer fee was the addition of Declan Rice. Looking at their impact so far (and these are very much my opinions), Rice has been a stunning signing, every bit as good as we dared to hope. Timber also looked likely to be a massive success only to be injured after one half of his first game. He is likely to be out for most of the season. Havertz has been underwhelming, both in terms of his effect on our goalscoring abilitiy and his performance during games. However it is still early days and he still has time to prove himself. The biggest surprise has been the replacement of the unfortunate Ramsdale who finds himself ousted from the side by Raya after doing very little wrong and much right over the past two seasons. This move more than any other underlines just how focused Arteta is on achieving incremental gains to the quality of his squad.

Fans at our first few games were excited and alarmed in equal measure by a defensive set-up that saw no Gabriel, Partey at right back and a bewildering array of positional switches. Zinchenko’s addition has led to even more  tactical complexities and my sense is that Arsenal players must retire to their beds after training reeling from the unusual ideas that Arteta is drumming into them to create the dynamism and creativity that he seeks. You have to be a very intelligent player to survive at the modern Arsenal.

We waved permanent goodbyes to fine servants like Xhaka, Holding and  Turner and bade  temporary (for now) farewells to Tierney, Tavares and Lokonga. All three of the loanees have immediately suffered significant injuries. Folarin Balogun departed to Monaco without being able to strut his stuff in the Premier League. Auston Trusty likewise moved on to Sheffield United after being voted player of the season at Birmingham. One wonders about the reason for his signing given that we made very little profit and he seemed the sort of talented player who could strengthen the squad. Yet caveats aside about the profitability of our transfer dealings, no one can deny the cold-eyed logic and intent behind Arteta’s team-building. Arsenal are being led by a generational coach, fully supported by owners who clearly believe in him and who have put together a cohesive and talented management team. These are good times and they should  become even better provided we can avoid injury setbacks especially to key players like Saka, Rice and particularly Saliba whose injury against Sporting Lisbon arguably derailed our season last year.

This year Saliba and Gabriel have reforged an increasingly durable partnership, Rice and Ødegaard are leaders of character and immense ability, Saka, without looking at his best probably because he is kicked from pillar to post with little protection, has been enormously influential. He is a bona fide world star. Martinelli’s absence has highlighted just how important he is to the side. A personal hope is that we can reintegrate Smith Rowe into the team as he brings so much dynamism and drive to our play. 

There are plenty of improvements which might be made. One cannot escape the concern that we lack the prolific goal scorer that all top teams seem to have. The balance in midfield does not yet feel right although the alliance between Partey and Rice in the last twenty minutes against Citeh, augmented by Jorginho’s performance beforehand does suggest we may have solutions there. Certainly, we have to hope that we will see greater contributions from Havertz, although it is not clear in which position or role he can add most to the team. Perhaps the biggest conundrum is the goalkeeping situation. Whatever he may claim publicly, Arteta has chosen Raya as his number one, ostensibly because of his superior distribution. The jury might be out on whether that is a correct decision but our manager generally makes the right moves and he will get the opportunity to explore the success of his beliefs in action. Ramsdale’s future may well lie away from the club. That would sadden me but the lad has a career to forge and is not a number two keeper. 

Particularly cheering is the fact that the support at the Grove remains hugely committed and enthusiastic. That is a vital aspect of any potential success that we hope to achieve. The toxicity of the latter Wenger years and end-stage Emery is gone and it is obvious that a re-energised support believe in the process and the direction of travel. So, who represent the greatest threat to us achieving our targets for this season?

The best of the rest 

Our noisy neighbours started the season by losing Harry Kane (to a much bigger club) but have shown, under their new manager (whom I will refer to as Ange) that all is not lost. Optimism at the Toilet Bowl should be tempered by the fact that, as previously mentioned, they have managed to play all the newly promoted sides so far plus two of the three sides immediately above them. One of them, Sheffield United, who shipped eight at home to Newcastle was only overcome with two goals deep into injury time. The less said about the victory over Liverpool the better. Let us just say it was a refereeing and VAR disaster. We were profligate in our game with them but in Van de Ven and Maddison they have made good signings and Ange is making a good fist of things so far. Reality will bite as it always does for them with harder fixtures. Liverpool look a formidable outfit without producing the convincing football of recent seasons and will be in the mix but Manchester United and Chelsea have started the season shockingly to our collective sadness and distress, although there are slight indications that Pochettino is starting to make progress despite the chaos around him. The other serious contender appears to be Newcastle who continue to develop under Eddie Howe and have begun well in Europe. Brighton continue their remarkable progress leavened with the occasional poor result and Wet Spam have shown there is life after Declan Rice with some intelligent signings. However, for Arsenal the real challenge lies in overcoming the behemoth that is Manchester City. We look much closer to them judging by the two games we have played against them so far, winning on  penalties in the Community Shield and then triumphing last weekend. They remain the benchmark but will be taking our challenge increasingly seriously. However, the loss of Gundogan and Mahrez particularly, appears to have affected them and the temporary absence of Rodri was keenly felt, whilst KDB’s return will undoubtedly add to the mix and not every centre back will deal with Haaland as brilliantly as Saliba did. If we finish above them, we will be champions.

The three promoted sides have really struggled, including Kompany’s Burnley, perhaps surprisingly. Gary O’Neill has looked a much better manager than his successor at Bournemouth, Iraiola, in piloting Wolves to some good results and the GHF Predictathon has reflected the uncertainty of early season results with some of the established members of this bar struggling, temporarily of course, in the relegation zone . 

The old cliche that there are no easy games has been slightly refuted by the performance of the newly promoted clubs but generally it remains  a very tough league in which to thrive. Credit to Arteta for getting us to the right end and avoiding the sort of pressure descending on Erik Ten Hag. 

The big talking points 

Sadly, the season has been dominated by rows over VAR and the competence or should that be incompetence of referees? We suffered a ridiculous sending off at Palace when Tomayisu was effectively yellow  carded for Havertz delaying a throw-in and then yellow carded again for the most innocuous of challenges. Compare that with the Kovacic challenges that Michael Oliver deemed not worthy of a red card or two yellows and the inconsistency is stunning . 

The low point was the aforementioned Tottnumb / Liverpool match where the quality of refereeing made a mockery of the result. It is, in my opinion, better for Liverpool to drop points rather than the Spuds but it illustrated what a farce and a lottery the combination of bad refereeing and VAR mishandling has made of what is ostensibly a professional game. Our colleague, Pangloss, made a very reasonable case for scrapping VAR totally a few weeks ago and there was considerable Holic support for a form  of automated offside system similar to the one used in Europe. If a system can pin the point of pass and the position of the attacker (and the offside rule is revised so that we don’t get the ridiculous distortion that caused Martinelli’s goal to be disallowed at Everton) we might be able to utilise technology for offside and goal line decisions and then let the corps of Premier League referees do their worst with other decisions. If the PGMOL could  be transformed into a quasi competent and professional organisation (as if?) without its strong bias towards recruitment from the North West we might have a hope of avoiding refereeing debacles, especially if we can introduce some of the best international referees to join forces with our ‘elite’ group of referees. 

My other wish is that we get to a situation where the Arsenal get access to TV rights for all their games so that when a game is not being shown live, loyal fans who can’t travel or get access to tickets can see it live in the UK. The embargo on 3pm televising of matches should be lifted. It would prevent the search for streams, many of them illegal, and bring in an extra revenue stream for the clubs.

As far as international football goes the current England team is the most exciting for years and Scotland have also done wonderful things in their qualifying group for the European championships although the recent international between the countries illustrated the gap between them. England have a group of genuinely world-class players, among them – Walker, Maguire (only joking!), Rice, Bellingham, Saka, Foden and Kane who might be able to secure silverware over the next few years. 

We also hope the Arsenal ladies, in whom there has been heavy and ambitious investment, can steady the ship and make another title challenge after their early exit from the Champions League. Jonas Eidevall has signed a new three year contract so KSE clearly have faith in him.

As we move into winter, we will see the squad stretched by the combination of Premier League and European football. Let us hope we avoid serious injuries, referees give our players more protection than they have so far and we can slip into the sort of rhythm that we generated this time last year. It’s an exciting prospect but football seasons last a very long time and the intensity of competition increases each year. Let us hope that we are the best prepared club for a very long haul this season. 

Posted in Interlull, Review | 87 Drinks »

We’ve Got An Awful Lot Of Gabis From Brazil

Oct 9th, 2023 by

Embed from Getty Images

Please tell me someone recognises The Coffee Song in the title …?

Since Bukayo Saka limped out of the game against RC Lens on Tuesday evening, speculation had reached fever pitch (see what I did there) as to whether he could possibly be fit to start against Man City. It had seemed impossible but the issue was thrown into confusion by Mikel Arteta’s press conference claim that he would be “in contention” for a starting berth. I would like to declare at this point that I am in contention to share a hot date with Barbie film star, Margot Robbie, but my chances of final selection are about the same as Bukayo’s were today.

In the event City were deprived of the services of Rodri, de Bruyne and Stones, while despite all the encouraging speculation the Arsenal lined up without Saka, Martinelli and Thomas Partey, but with David Raya continuing in goal, he having been a part of the Brentford team that did the double over City last season. The stakes could hardly have been higher or the omens worse. Last season City only beat one team from the top eight away from home – Arsenal, and the Gunners had not beaten City in the league since Monday 21st December, 2015. However, whoever won today’s game would sit top of the league going into the upcoming International break.

Both teams started at a tempo and trying to press high up the pitch. It was heart in the mouth time after just 3 1/2 minutes when, with Raya floundering, Declan Rice headed a shot off the line. Arsenal countered after a terrific recovery challenge by Saliba to wrestle the ball from Cyborg, when Trossard found Jesus – in a non religious kind of way – and a short series of attacks on the City area ended with an offside against birthday boy, Ben White. Michael Oliver then got very confused and handed a card, though possibly not of the greetings variety, to Jorginho for a clumsy tackle which ended a City break on 10 minutes. It’s the sort of tactic City employ with impunity ten times a game but we know from experience how much Oliver likes to book an Arsenal man.

At that point things were looking shaky. David Raya had lost the calm composure of previous games and was lucky when a poor attempted clearance bounced narrowly wide off the challenging Alvarez’s leg. He was playing our defenders into trouble with some dubious short passes and hit a lot of uncharacteristically long balls which were not finding team mates. Bernardo Silva was booked for a bad challenge on Rice as he tried to deal with one of those dubious passes. Nketiah then shot wide from a clever pass by Zinchenko and Gary Neville was pleased to helpfully inform us that the striker had not found the far corner.

Kovacic was handed a yellow card for a nasty tackle through the back of Martin Odegaard. VAR checked for Serious Foul Play but ducked out of what probably should have been a red card. Gary Neville helpfully informed us that it was “orange”. See, the thing is, Gary, they don’t do those.

Raya then passed a horrible ball to Rice who was cut down by Kovacic. That should have been a second yellow and an early bath for Kovacic but Michael Oliver immediately and inexplicably waved all claims away and allowed him to continue unpunished. Even Gary Neville helpfully informed us that Kovacic should have gone. The first half ended after a double effort by Zinchenko from distance was blocked. Jesus had the beating of Gvardiol but could not find the final ball while, at the back, Saliba and Gabriel had assumed complete control of City’s forwards.

Half Time: Arsenal 0-0 Man City

Half time refreshments for your correspondent consisted of a can of Draught Guinness 0.0 Alcohol – brilliant and undistinguishable from the ‘real’ thing – and Cashews, Roasted Cashews, £4.20 a bag ! A far cry from the good old days of Percy Dalton’s on the North Bank. Ask your dads, kids !

If Arteta was serious recently about substituting goalkeepers, one would have thought David Raya unlikely to reappear for the second half. In fact, the only change was Gabriel Martinelli for Leo Trossard and the Brazilian was quickly into his all action style. Raya had had a halftime makeover, recovered his calm and suddenly could complete his long passes again – clearly now a tactic to bypass City’s massed troops in midfield and press for the second balls. We suddenly looked much more purposeful and forced an attack which culminated in a lofted pass from Zinchenko aimed at Bathgooner in North Bank Upper.

The Arsenal were now in control and Guardiola reacted on 67 minutes with a triple change – Stones, Nunes and Doku on; Lewis, Kovacic and Alvarez off.

Arteta responded with a triple change of his own on 74 minutes – Tomiyasu, Havertz and Partey on; Zinchenko, Nketiah and Jorginho off.

Partey was immediately pulling strings in the middle and his partnership with Rice instantly restored calm in front of our back four – one superb tackle from Rice again protecting our centre backs on 80 minutes. And then on 86 minutes …… IT happened. Tomiyasu to Havertz who rolled it to Martinelli who hammered a shot which deflected – hahahahaha ! – past a stranded Ederson. Cue mayhem – cue Limbs ! – and that was just me and Ted on the sofa. Ted is a Golden Retriever and seemed quite surprised !

The substitutions had worked to perfection. Thomas Partey’s languid, decisive style had further transformed the team after Martinelli’s introduction, although I personally think Rice, Gabriel and Saliba should all have been jointly awarded Man of The Match.

The 4 added minutes were efficiently seen out although Michael Oliver took one final opportunity to book another Arsenal player. Gabriel Jesus this time for not rushing the ball back quickly enough to Ederson, who elbowed our striker in the kidneys for his trouble and joined his fellow Brazilian in the book. Oliver blew for time just short of 95 minutes – cue more Limbs, although Ted looked slightly resigned this time and covered his ears with his paws as I turned up the TV volume and joined in the finale rendition of North London Forever.

Whatever Mikel Arteta said to the players at half time had been transformative. Two cagey teams started the afternoon by carefully sizing each other up. The Arsenal decided after 74 minutes “it’s up for grabs now !” (see what I did there, again) – so they went for it, and they took it !

The post match interview on Sky featured Gabriels Martinelli and Jesus while their similarly named pal, Magalhäes got his feet up in the changing room. If winning this Premier League eventually requires divine intervention, with 3 Gabriel Angels and a Jesus what can possibly go wrong ?

Posted in Match Report | 130 Drinks »

DO IT AGAIN!

Oct 7th, 2023 by

We come now to as good a yardstick as we could ask for to assess whether Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal team has progressed to the level required to win the Premier League. Tomorrow, we host the current league leaders, a club that has set the pace in recent seasons. Guardiola’s teams have raised the bar to win the Premier League title to such a degree that a single failure to take 3 points feels like a mortal wound to the hopes of any competitor. We do, of course, all know why this hitherto unremarkable club have risen to such a pinnacle of success and we await, with interest, the outcome of the FA panel’s deliberations and the recently revealed discussions between the UAE government and the FCO which must surely also be informed by revelations of this club’s owner’s alleged accommodating relationship with Roman Abramovic. 

Abou Dhabi Citeh come into this match after a brief wobble at the end of September, losing 0-1 to Riyadh United in a league cup tie in which the absence of Rodri in their midfield was noticeable, closely followed by a 1-2 defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers which surprised everyone after their imperious hundred percent winning start to the season. Of course, there was also, at the beginning of the season, the small blemish of losing the Charity Shield 1-4 on penalties to the Arsenal. Whether that result gives a boost to our players’ confidence and a psychological edge or rather an incentive to the UAE mercenaries remains to be seen. I suspect it will have little impact on tomorrow’s proceedings.

We need no detailed analysis of our opponents’ personnel, most of whom are very familiar to us as is the strength in depth of their expensively assembled mercenaries which has proved a major obstacle to Arsenal’s Premier League ambitions in recent seasons. This summer they again strengthened throughout their squad. They have added Gvardiol to their centre back roster – a big defender with ball skills; the solid but somewhat pedestrian Kovacic to midfield – a slightly desperate move to replace the much more mobile and effective Gundogan; Nunes (who went on strike to secure the move from Wolves and received a highly appropriate reception last week at Molineux) to midfield possibly as next season’s replacement for Silva; and Doku, a tricky, pacy and dangerous looking winger from Rennes. The UAE sports washers did get back to winning ways on Wednesday with a competent display in Leipzig where home-grown, youth prospect Rico Lewis was man of the match in midfield. The absence of De Bruyne through injury and Rodri through suspension following a red card for aggravated assault deprives their engine room of considerable experience but the impact on their attacking threat through the loss of the Belgian is likely to be less, given their other riches, than the possible impact on their defensive solidity of Rodri’s absence to which can be added the probable absence of Stones.

The impact of non-availability of our own possible absentees will almost certainly be greater. A copious quantity of virtual ink has been shed on the possible absence of Saka and our options after he limped off the Lens pitch in the first half with what was subsequently described as a ‘mild hamstring strain’. Saka has since been subject to daily fitness assessments. Meanwhile, those ‘fans’ in possession of high quality retrospectoscopes have been castigating Arteta and his medical team for having selected Saka on Tuesday in the hope that our strongest team might win crucial points against the strongest opponent in our Champions League group. 

As I began this preview it seemed likely that neither Saka nor Martinelli would be fit for this match. After Saka limped off on Tuesday, we saw the extent to which our attack is less dynamic and penetrative without both our first-choice wide men. Optimistic noises about Saka’s resilience came out of Arsenal on Wednesday but, given the diagnosis, were he to start on Sunday, much of the smart money would be on Saka not lasting the whole match or even the first half – he hasn’t lasted 90 minutes in any of his last three games! Our own Sports Medicine guru, Trev, observed in the last Drinks that even if this is only a mild hamstring strain, he would recommend four weeks of rest, otherwise the injury is likely to be aggravated and Saka’s absence longer. A long break would be eminently possible given the forthcoming Interlull although Southgate has selected him in the England squad for a meaningless friendly against the Convicts and a home Euro qualifier against Italy who are in disarray. Southgate should know by now what Saka brings to his team and be exploring alternative options with the other players at his disposal, rather than risking a key player’s longterm fitness. However, in his press conference on Friday, when asked about Saka’s involvement in this game, Mikel Arteta said, “Well, he’s in contention. Let’s see how he progresses from here to Sunday….let’s see how he recovers!” Arteta’s expression and usual dead pan delivery was straight out of a poker game. Who knows whether Saka will start?

Meanwhile Martinelli’s current fitness is shrouded in mystery. On Thursday’s She Wore blog, Keenos provided a detailed analysis of our options to replace these two players. I agree with much of his analysis. Vieira proved yet again on Tuesday that he cannot reproduce Saka’s threat on the right wing, having already demonstrated that on several previous occasions; the Portuguese has a lot of skill but has neither the pace, drive or left foot to reproduce our boy genius’ contribution. Keenos made the interesting observation that Havertz played as a right sided attacker very successfully in Germany (50 times, scoring 18, assisting 11) though he hasn’t played on the right wing regularly since 2019. However, Keenos plumped for Trossard to replace Saka because his two-footedness would allow him to reproduce Saka’s inverted role, rejecting Nelson as his right-footed dominance would change the dynamic and interactions that Saka brings to our offensive right flank. Keenos also argued that ESR would be his choice on the left flank in Martinelli’s absence as he is the most likely of our options to pin Walker back with his offensive threat and potentially also give the right back a roasting.

Arsenal have not beaten Abou Dhabi Citeh in a Premier League match since our 2-1 victory in December 2015 under Arsène Wenger and we have lost our last 12 league meetings, the last being the 4-1 defeat in April that finally blew up our title challenge. However, despite the disappointing run of three draws that preceded that last league game against tomorrow’s opponents, that defeat and the 1-3 reverse in February’s re-arranged game at the Emirates were decisive in the destination of last season’s Premier League trophy. The Arsenal finished a mere 5 points behind Abou Dhabi and an Arsenal win in just one of those encounters would have seen us win the league by one point. The Athletic (£) provides an excellent analysis of the impact of head-to-head games between the top two Premier League teams on the destination of the title. They state that only six times in the 31 Premier League seasons to date have the ultimate champions done the double over the club that finished second and that in five of these six seasons the resultant 12 point swing was crucial as the title was won by five points or less.

So, given Abou Dhabi’s aforementioned raising of the bar and the points tally required to win the league, Kevin Campbell, quoted on the BBC site, may be correct in his assertion that “Arsenal do need to win this game. Any designs to win that title – they have to take points off Man City.” On the other hand, Mikel Arteta appeared at first sight to downplay the game’s potential significance when asked in his pre-match press conference if it’s a season-defining match, “No, it would be a big boost, energy and confidence-wise, but apart from that and the three points, nothing else.” However the boss isn’t going to give a hostage to fortune and add to the media pressure at this stage of the season. I agree with Kevin Campbell on the significance of this match – if we are to win the league – and get over the mental barrier that must exist after this run of league defeats, now is a good time to lay that ghost. An Arsenal win doesn’t guarantee that we win the league nor does a defeat extinguish our challenge but this game’s result is the best available yardstick of our potential to win the Premier League this season. At the very least, we must not lose this game and, be under no illusion, Guardiola knows the importance of beating his main Premier League competitors and his players will be primed to go for our jugular in the manner they displayed in both of last season’s league encounters. 

Unquestionably, if Saka is anywhere close to full fitness, he will start. The importance of this match to our league challenge and Saka’s importance to our attacking threat plus the negative impact of his absence in the last hour of our game on Tuesday suggests that we will do everything we can do to get him fit to start – including perhaps horse placenta baths and the laying on of hands by Jesús? Arteta has previously praised Saka’s remarkable powers of recovery and there is no doubt in my mind that Saka will want to play unless the medics forbid it. Indeed, the back page of Saturday’s Times has an article by Gary Jacob headlined: ‘Arsenal boost as Saka is passed fit for City clash’. Whether Gary Jacob has a source inside Arsenal, is over-interpreting Arteta’s “He is in contention” or is just making it up, he writes that ‘a scan on the England forward’s left leg has allayed fears he had suffered a serious injury’. Moreover, he underlines Saka’s importance to this Arsenal team with the stat that Saka has been involved in 10 of our 21 goals this season. I do suspect that Saka will start this game though I can hear Trev’s cautionary words in my ear. I can only trust Mikel Arteta’s judgement on this (he has certainly earned that trust) and pray to Zeus, Wotan and Jehovah for a successful outcome. 

On the other hand, it seems likely that Martinelli will not be available. Late news from reliable sources on Twitter (Yes, I know!), report that Martinelli, who last played on 17th September and has missed the last 5 games, has been doing gym work this week but has not yet been cleared by the medics to train with the first team. However, there is some good news on the injury front as Thomas Partey has recovered earlier than expected from his knock, was an unused sub on Tuesday and presumably has been a participant in training for at least a week. I expect him to be a late reinforcement from the bench in this game rather than starting as an inverted right back!

I expect Raya to retain his starting position in goal as he does now seem to be established as Arteta’s first choice keeper. However, that is by no means a universal Gooner opinion and his rick for the equaliser on Tuesday seemed as decisive a turning point in the Lens match as Saka’s departure. I would start Tomiyasu at left back because of the threat from Walker who will certainly be ready to exploit the space left by Zinchenko when we inevitably turn over the ball high up the pitch. Opposition teams all now seem to know that we have that Achilles heel and Pep will certainly be ready to exploit it. That is the downside of the added body that Zinchenko’s role brings to our midfield build up and because his contribution is generally so significant, I would start Zinchenko as the ‘left 6/8’ in place of Havertz, relying on Saliba and Gabriel to deal with the aerial threat of Haaland at set pieces. However I don’t expect Arteta to do this although it does offer the kind of surprise for which he seems to look these days.

Therefore, I have taken the liberty of offering my selection as well as the XI I expect from Mikel Arteta. In the expectation that Saka passes his fitness test on Sunday, the bathgooner starting eleven would be:

Ramsdale;

White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu;

Ødegaard, Rice, Zinchenko;

Saka, Jesús, ESR.

On the other hand, I expect the following starting XI from Mikel:

Raya

White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko;

Ødegaard, Rice, Havertz;

Saka, Jesús, Trossard.

Who am I to argue with the man?

“The Holic Pound?” I hear you ask.

Arsenal are generally just short of 2/1 to win, with the draw around 12/5. Jesús, Saka, Ødegaard, Nketiah, Trossard and Martinelli are all around 3/1 to score. You can get 11/1 on either 1-0 or 2-1 to the Arsenal but if you’re feeling optimistic, you can get 25/1 on 3-1 to the Arsenal while the cautious bet might be the 12/1 on 2-2.

Wherever in the world you are watching this game, Holics, I sincerely hope you enjoy it immensely. I shall be keeping TTG’s throne in the North Bank Upper warm while he downs pink gins on his schooner on the Broads. Or was it, with the broads?

COYG

Let’s do this!

Posted in Match Preview | 47 Drinks »

Arteta Under the Microscope in Lens

Oct 3rd, 2023 by

Despite the fact that it is only a short hop from London to Lens, the team arrived late due to storms over the South-East of England. Quite possibly the result of The Gods laughing at the VAR audio from the Diaz decision on Sunday. 

From the pre-match TV interviews, the travel travails certainly didn’t impact the serenity currently settled over players and manager; Arteta seemed relaxed and positive and this was certainly reflected in his team selection, with only White of the first choice players being rested.

Raya

Tomiyasu Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko

Rice

Ødegaard (c) Havertz

Saka Jesús Trossard

From the kick off, the Lens fans really created a raucous atmosphere.  This former mining town in North East France has a passionate crowd reminiscent of those in the north of England.  Reacting to this support, from corner which we failed to clear, Danso, hammered past the post. A warning shot.

It took a while for Arsenal to get going, but from the 10th minute we saw the first extended period of Arenal possession with some excellent passing and moving, without necessarily creating chances.  While not succeeding in silencing the home crowd, it notably reduced the volume.  After around 3 minutes where we had the ball almost constantly, winning it back almost immediately when we weren’t in possession, we made the breakthrough. Arsenal pressure high up the pitch resulted in an interception from Saka. Saka passed first time into Jesús who then took the ball wide of the defender and hit it early into the bottom left corner, without needing to take it past the defender. A superb finish. 

Having gone behind, Lens kicked into overdrive and began really pressing Arsenal very high up the pitch. Arsenal managed to play round them on a number of occasions with Saliba and Rice in particular showing just how press resistant, in the modern terminology, they are. Unfortunately, this pressure resulted in our giving away a poor goal. A very poor pass from Raya, looking to pick out Tomiyasu, himself under pressure from a Lens player, led to the opposition winning the ball and breaking. Stretched at the back, their centre forward was able to direct the ball into the path of the left winger to strike past Raya from the edge of the box.   This was totally self-inflicted, and Raya has now made his first significant mistake.   

After 33 minutes, the wisdom of playing Saka yet again from the start was called into question as he had to be taken off, suffering from some kind of leg injury, with Vieira taking his place.  The rest of the half played out with Lens pressing and Arsenal seeking to hold them off.

Half-Time Lens 1 Arsenal 1

Arsenal started well in the second half and on 48 nearly scored after Jesús, harrying the defender, won the ball back and passed to Trossard who shot at the keeper. From that point on, Lens really began to dominate. 

On 66 minutes, a rare bit of incisive play from Arsenal led to a corner.  Ødegaard delivered well and Tomi, in oceans of space, hammered the ball low and hard only to see the keeper make a save with an outstretched leg.

Shortly after, Lens delivered the hammer blow. Their right winger, who had caused a problem all evening, delivered a fantastic cross behind the Arsenal defenders rushing back towards their own goal which Wahi guided home beautifully with his right foot with three Arsenal defenders marking space.  This was the signal for Arteta to bring on a number of substitutes in an attempt to inject some energy into what had been a really lifeless second half performance – Nelson, White and ESR for Trossard, Tomi and Havertz respectively. Quite honestly it was all too late and really didn’t succeed in adding a lot of anything, although in the last of four minutes of extra time we had a couple of corners which caused some concern to the Lens fans. For most of the period up until then a combination of a deep block, good organisation and lack of inspiration resulted in watching the kind of horseshoe football we thought we had left behind a couple of seasons ago.

Final Score  Lens 2 Arsenal 1

Conclusions

Given the performance, it is difficult to fathom quite what Arteta’s plan was. He picked a strong team, but there was no energy or dynamism in the performance. Did he instruct them to save energy for Sunday, as we certainly weren’t full of vim and vigour? He started Saka yet again and again saw him come off injured, for the third game in a row, this time walking down the tunnel. Would we have played any worse with some first teamers rested? Did the travel difficulties have an impact?  I guess, we’ll have more of an idea on Sunday.

Onwards.

Posted in Match Report | 31 Drinks »

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